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Check out the paper led by research scientist Dr. Qiang Sun titled “Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones” published at PNAS. The paper presents controlled experiments showing that an AI weather model cannot forecast tropical cyclones stronger than anything they had seen in the training set (i.e., they cannot extrapolate). However, the AI model shows promise in learning from strong storms in one region and forecasting them in another region. The results have important implications for the current AI weather models and climate emulators.