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Check out the paper led by research scientist Dr. Qiang Sun titled “Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones” published in PNAS. The paper presents controlled experiments showing that an AI weather model cannot forecast “gray swan” tropical cyclones: those stronger than any the AI model had seen in the training set (i.e., AI model cannot “extrapolate”). However, the AI model shows the remarkable ability to learn from strong storms in one ocean basin and forecast them in another (i.e., it can “translocate”). The results have important implications for the current AI weather models and climate emulators. The paper is highlighted in PNAS podcast, Gizmodo, and UChicago News.